People overestimate jacks. Sure, it’s the fourth-highest pocket pair, but is it that much better than TT or 99? Yet, how many players advise you to go all-in pre-flop with those hands? Also, after a typical stretch of 87 or so consecutive hands on the order of 83o, Q2s, and T7o, two Johnnies can look pretty good.
1. “Who’s likely to call me?” The more players who will act after you, the greater the risk that one or more has AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQs, or another hand that you don’t want to call. I’ve seen players with KQs call an early position all-in. You say you don’t mind a call from an opponent with KQs? Well, you’re only about a 54-46 favorite. If that’s enough of an edge for you, God bless you, but personally I like better odds before I commit all of my chips. On the other hand, if the only likely caller at your table is that guy who plays Daniel Negreanu-type suited or unsuited connectors, AND he doesn’t happen to have Daniel’s DNA, maybe you go for it with jacks and double up 80% of the time.
2. “What will I win if everyone else folds?” With the explosion of poker popularity in recent years, there are lots of “newbies,” and nothing seems to attract them more than tables where they can say “all-in,”just like the pros they see on TV. Plenty of them are willing to risk all of their money to win $7 or $15 in blinds. When one does and shows his Johnnies, the experienced players hide their smiles and salivate.
3. “Why not make a smaller raise?” Poker is supposed to be a thinking person’s game. What are you trying to accomplish? Is it really necessary to go all-in to drive out the A-rags and K-rags? Wouldn’t a raise of three or four big blinds do the same thing? And then you have the opportunity to do some thinking of your own if someone re-raises. I am continually amazed by the players who raise with JJ and then call an all-in re-raise, announcing “I put her on Slick or AQ.”
4. “Why raise at all?” If I’m to the button’s right, three or four players have limped, and I look down and discover JJ, I may limp as well. There’s a lot of money in the pot, and I’d be surprised if none of the previous limpers have a big ace. Both factors lower the odds that my all-in bet would win the pot without a flop. Why not wait for the flop and then decide? Not raising can be a great disguise, too.
That last strategy worked well for me in a recent game. I had jacks and was the fourth limper. With all that light action, seven players, including both blinds, saw the flop. Remember the unspeakable horror of the un-raised big blind? The BB in this game had 87s and the flop was J78! He checked and so did everyone else before me. I made a small bet designed to represent a weak J, a straight draw, or an 8 with an ace or king kicker. The button re-raised with KJo, and the BB went all-in with what he had considerable reason to think was the best hand. I called and the button wisely folded. The poker gods smiled on me and after my set held, the BB grumbled aloud about “people who don’t know how to bet jacks.” I said nothing, but I made sure to buy him a beer before I left.
What would I have done if the flop contained an A, K, or Q and no J? If anyone but the button bet the flop, I’d have folded and counted most of my chips as saved money. Sure, I might have gotten the holder of that big card to fold with a big raise pre-flop. But in the long run, I think you’re better off evaluating JJ fairly: It’s a good hand until a higher card flops, and then your real thinking begins.
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